The Simplest Option Valuation Genetic Algorithm Model – NASDAQ case study
			
	
 
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				1
				Wydział Inżynierii Zarzadzania
Instytut Zarzadzania i Systemów Informacyjnych, Politechnika Poznańska, Polska
				 
			 
						
				2
				Economics and Accounting Departament, University of Vigo, Spain
				 
			 
										
				
				
		
		 
			
			
			
			 
			Submission date: 2021-09-30
			 
		 		
		
		
		
			
			 
			Acceptance date: 2021-11-09
			 
		 		
		
		
			
			 
			Publication date: 2021-12-15
			 
		 			
		 
	
							
					    		
    			 
    			
    				    					Corresponding author
    					    				    				
    					Joanna  Małecka   
    					Wydział Inżynierii Zarzadzania
Instytut Zarzadzania i Systemów Informacyjnych, Politechnika Poznańska, Jacka Rychlewskiego 2, 61-138, Pozmań, Polska
    				
 
    			
				 
    			 
    		 		
			
												 
		
	 
		
 
 
Organizacja i Zarządzanie 2021;83:63-80
		
 
 
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ABSTRACT
The capital market is the meeting place of supply and demand. The profit orientation possible through the stock market stimulates two processes: 1) buying or 2) selling financial instruments – a long or short option. Investing is a process accompanied by fluctuations – often of <1% per day. Hence, individual investors look for alternatives, which include derivatives that fluctuate up to 100% per day. Therefore, the need was perceived to develop an instrument – a valuation tool – to help individual investors make investment decisions. The Black-Scholes Model (BSM) uses six independent variables. It was therefore decided to compile an alternative valuation model based on the Genetic Algorithm (GA) on the strength of companies listed on NASDAQ: FaceBook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google (so-called FAANG companies), using Eureqa GA software. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a study that attempts to develop a more efficient option pricing model by comparing the accuracy of the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the Black-Scholes Model (BSM) and evaluating gaps in underlying price movements. The comparison of the genetic algorithm with the traditional Black-Scholes option pricing model led to the development of a new linear investment model – investors can make predictions using one variable – the share price, which should significantly optimise strategic investment decisions. The presented model is characterised by higher investment efficiency, especially important for individual investors, who usually are not able to achieve the profit scale effect based on the value of a retail investment portfolio.